AMERICA'S RESEARCH GROUP PREDICTS
HOLIDAY SALES WILL INCREASE 3.2%
CHARLESTON, SC -- America's Research Group predicts U.S. sales will increase 3.2% this holiday season, according to Britt Beemer, president of the market research company.
The 12 Stories of Christmas
1. With no "hot€VbCrLf toy, no "big€VbCrLf electronics item or "must have€VbCrLf apparel item, only 37.3% of consumers are planning to buy something for themselves and most of those plan to spend $50 or less.
2. The average number of people receiving gifts will be 9.87 people and the biggest gift range will be $36-$50 with the average gift at $38.39.
3. The lack of a "hot€VbCrLf toy is obvious, with 43.1% of respondents saying their children are not asking for anything this Christmas. The top five toys kids are asking for are:
- Nintendo/Play Station -- 13.0%
- Barbie -- 9.6%
- Bicycle -- 9.1%
- Computer games -- 7.6%
- Doll babies -- 6.5%
4. Higher gas prices are having a dampening effect. 21.8% of the survey participants say they will spend less due to higher gas prices. Most of those are spending 10%-15% less.
5. Shopping over Thanksgiving weekend will be the lowest in a decade. Only 30.5% plan to shop on Friday, and even fewer (26.3%) saying they will shop on either the Saturday or Sunday following Thanksgiving.
6. The top five gifts this Christmas:
- Toys -- 29.1%
- Electronics -- 21.1%
- Jewelry -- 18.6%
- Perfume/cologne -- 17.6%
- Children's clothes -- 13.1%
7. The average amount spent by American families will be $884.98.
8. 23.7% plan to buy on the Internet. Their top five choices are:
- Books -- 19.5%
- Computer software -- 16.4%
- DVDs -- 16.1%
- Toys -- 16.0%
- Linens -- 15.5%
9. More than half of the respondents (56.1%) plan to do most of their shopping from early December to December 20th. Only 2.4% are currently finished and only 13.9% plan to to postpone shopping until the last three or four days.
10. 66% of the survey say they believe retailers will lower their prices before Christmas. 63.3% say they believe 50% off sales are genuine. 20% will wait for those 50% off sales and 96% of those will radically slash their spending if they don't see 50% off at their favorite stores.
11. The popularity of gift cards is still strong with 38% planning to give gift cards this Christmas. This compares to 48% who planned to give gift cards at this time last year.
12. The top 5 toys parents and grandparents are planning to give their children are:
- Nintendo/Play Station -- 25.5%
- Barbie -- 22.5%
- Bicycle -- 19.1%
- Action figures -- 18.8%
- Hand-held games -- 16.5%
Other Highlights
1. George Bush's re-election is a positive to 19.1% who will spend more. For those who say they will spend less, George Bush's re-election is seen as positive with only 11%.
2. Only 22% plan to be on vacation either the week before or after Christmas. The week before Christmas will be when most take their Christmas break.
3. On a positive note, 67.6% of the respondents feel their family is better off this Christmas compared to last year.
4. 32.4% of the survey participants plan to spend more while 19.8% plan to spend less.
5. Giving Christmas decorations as gifts continues to be strong for 22.3% due to the lack of a "hot item€VbCrLf this Christmas.
6. 53% expect stores to be short-handed this Christmas. 53% of that group say they will avoid stores where sales help is inadequate and the lines are too long.
Beemer based his prediction on 1,000 consumer telephone calls from Nov. 3 to 5, 2004.
Britt Beemer has accurately predicted the last eight of the last nine Christmases within a half of one percent.
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